Multiple exit polls released after voting concluded on Saturday, June 1st in India’s marathon general election are projecting a resounding victory for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The hard-fought contest, which was spread over six weeks across April and May in the sweltering summer heat, saw nearly one billion Indians eligible to cast their ballots.
A summary of exit poll findings by the NDTV news channel indicated the ruling NDA alliance could win more than 350 of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, India’s lower house of parliament, where 272 seats are needed for a simple majority. Most major exit polls projected the NDA crossing the two-thirds majority mark, with some forecasting as many as 380+ seats for the BJP-led coalition.
In contrast, the opposition INDIA alliance headed by Rahul Gandhi’s Indian National Congress was projected to secure over 120 seats according to the exit polls. However, leaders of the INDIA bloc rejected the exit poll numbers at a meeting on Saturday, asserting they would get more than 295 seats and form the next government based on “people’s feedback”.
Speaking to the media after the opposition meeting, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge termed the exit polls “prefixed” and claimed the INDIA alliance had arrived at the 295+ figure through a “people’s survey”. Supriya Shrinate from Congress dismissed the exit polls as a “government exit poll” and “Narendra Modi’s exit poll”. Aam Aadmi Party’s Sanjay Singh echoed this, alleging the exit polls were “of the government and of the BJP.”
Most major Indian news channels are accused of bias towards PM Modi by the opposition, who contend exit polls in India are largely unscientific. However, if the exit poll predictions hold true, it would make Modi only the second prime minister after Jawaharlal Nehru to win three consecutive terms in office.
Modi exuded confidence of an NDA victory in his first comments after voting ended, claiming people had “voted in record numbers to re-elect the NDA government”. He asserted the “opportunistic INDI Alliance failed to strike a chord with voters who rejected their regressive politics”.
A 58.34% voter turnout was recorded nationwide on June 1st, with incidents of violence between BJP and Trinamool Congress supporters in West Bengal’s Sandeshkhali region. Complaints of EVM glitches and rigging at some booths were also lodged.
The Election Commission will count votes on June 4th, with results for the Lok Sabha elections as well as assemblies in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim expected the same day. Arunachal and Sikkim’s assembly results will be out on June 2nd.
While exit polls have often missed the mark in India, the sheer scale of Modi’s projected victory margins across multiple surveys points to a potential third term for the PM and his BJP-led NDA amid an acrimonious, bitterly fought election campaign.